sportsfanIQ

EDITOR'S NOTE: sportsfanIQ IS OFFICIALLY 1-7 FOR THE POST-SEASON.  IF YOU WANT TO BE CORRECT ON YOUR PICK, GO AGAINST ME.  AFTER A DISMAL 0-4 LAST WEEK, IT'S NOW COME DOWN TO A COIN TOSS TO DECIDE WHERE I STAND ON THESE GAMES.  I'LL GIVE AN ANALYSIS OF THE MATCH-UPS, BUT MY PICKS ARE EVIDENTLY USELESS.  NEVERTHELESS...

NYJ at Indianapolis (-7.5)

Are we ready to acknowledge the significance placed on being able to run the ball in the playoffs?  The New York Jets stampeded for 169 yards on 39 attempts against a San Diego team that, like the Bengals before them, knew exactly what needed to be done and couldn't do it.  For the regular season, the Colts gave up 126.5 YDS/G on the ground.  To their credit, against a team that ran for 234 yards the week before, the Colts held the Ravens to just 87 yards. (Truth be told in this stat, though, Baltimore ran for 4.5 yards an attempt against New England; 4.6 yards an attempt against the Colts.) The difference was the Ravens' ability to get out to an early lead against the Pats.  So therefore, if the Jets can somehow jump out to a lead, their running game can set the tone.  Still, Indianapolis' second-ranked passing offense (282 YDS/G) against the Jets' top-ranked passing defense (154 YDS/G) will tell the real story.  Expect a lot of mixed packages from Ryan's defense, in the hopes of confusing Manning. (Good luck!)  The Jets will run the ball.  The Colts will throw the ball.  The more successful will win the game (duh).  I really do like the Jets in this game.  But judging from my playoff record, and my interest in seeing the J-E-T-S win, I'm taking the Colts minus 7.5.

Minnesota at New Orleans (-4)

Alright, what do we think about the Saints putting up 45 on a defense that surrendered the exact amount at home the week prior?  Reggie Bush's numbers were eye-popping: five runs for 84 yards and a TD; four catches for 24 yards; and a punt return for 83 yards and another score.  But again, this was against a tired Cardinals bunch.  Compared to the Vikings, for the regular season: Arizona's running D - 112.8 YDS/G, Minnesota - 87.1 YDS/G.  Arizona's passing D - 233.7 YDS/G, Minnesota - 218.4 YDS/G.  The Saints are twenty-fifth in overall defense but first in offense.  The Vikings?  Fifth in overall offense and sixth in defense.  Basically, although the Saints will be at home, expect a whole different offensive performance from New Orleans, and a whole different defensive performance from Minnesota.  The Vikings clearly have the more balanced approach and considering they also play in a dome, New Orleans' home field advantage will be slighted.  They'll have the crowd noise to their favor, but if AP can get going against a team that allowed 122.2 on the ground in the regular season, the Vikings may be hard to keep out of the Super Bowl.  It's hard to go against Favre, but since I thought the Saints would be making this journey all year, I'll take the points, but predict the Saints to win.  Vikings plus 4.