sportsfanIQ

Green Bay at Detroit (+10)

Playing on a shortened week usually provides the home team with the advantage.  But with the loss of Matthew Stafford to a shoulder injury, Green Bay looks to capitalize on their ability to score points.  The Lions rank dead last in passing defense, giving up 275 YDS/G and edge only Cleveland in worst defense overall.  The Lions look to win their first Thanksgiving game since 2003, when they defeated these same Packers, 22-14.  Since 1951, the Lions hold an 11-6-1 edge against the Packers on Turkey Day, having last lost to them 37-26 in 2007.  Aaron Rodgers has been efficient his last two games, completing 70% of his passes with 3 TDs and 533 YDS in wins over Dallas and San Francisco.  Packers minus the 10.

Oakland at Dallas (-13.5)

Evidently, last week didn't influence this line at all.  The Cowboys looked inept in a 7-6 win over the Redskins, managing just 305 YDs, over 76 YDs below their season average.  On the other side, the Raiders shocked the 7-3 Bengals with 10 points in the final 33 seconds.  It appears as though inconsistency runs on both sides of this matchup.  The Raiders lost by a combined 12 points in two games against the 7-3 Chargers, beat the 6-4 Eagles, but got crushed 38-0 by the 4-6 Jets.  The  Boys, perhaps the most uncertain team in the league, needed OT to defeat the 3-7 Chiefs before ripping off four in a row, then totaled 14 points in their last two games (1-1).  Which two teams will show up?  Cowboys by 14. 

Giants at Denver (+6.5)

Talk about a tale of two seasons.  The Broncos proved their critics wrong, going 6-0 to start the season, now look to prove those that jumped on the bandwagon wrong as well.  Denver outscored their opponents 133-66 in their first six games.  Since, they've been outscored 37-117 in four losses.  The Giants possess the second best overall defense, only allowing 282 YDS/G, but rank twenty-third in points allowed (23.5).  What's more alarming, they allowed both the Chargers and Falcons to march right down the field, late in both games, giving up the game-winning and game-tying touchdown.  They showed heart, though, rebounding in OT against Atlanta.  I'll take the G-Men minus the 6.5 here. 

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-12)

After starting the season 4-1, the Falcons have now lost four of five and stand at an even 5-5.  For an offense that includes Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, to say they've underachieved so far would be an understatement.  Their passing offense sits 16th in the league, two slots behind the Bears.  Their rushing is 12th and they rank 14th overall.  Tampa's rushing defense is last in the league, providing the Falcons Michael Turner an opportunity to run rampant at home.  Even if he can't go, backup Jason Snelling filled in just fine with 76 YDs and 2 TDs against the Giants.  I like Atlanta to regain some momentum.   

Miami at Buffalo (+3)

Terrell Owens exploded with 9 catches for 197 YDs and a touchdown.  The Bills actually looked competitive against a Jaguar team that suddenly finds themselves in playoff contention.  Although they rank second to last in rushing defense, the Bills surrendered only 102 YDs to the 6th ranked rushing attack in Jacksonville, holding MJD to 66 YDs.  With the loss of Ronnie Brown for the season, the Dolphins didn't miss a beat rushing Ricky Williams for 119 YDs and two touchdowns against Carolina.  The Bills are so inconsistent I wouldn't be surprised if they are blown out here.  But something tells me they'll show up against this divisional foe.  Bills cover and maybe even win.  

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-14)

The Browns' last game against the Lions seemed like a Twilight Zone episode.  Did it really happen?  They scored more points in this game (37) than their last five games combined (29).  Brady Quinn threw a career-high 4 TDs, going 21-33 with 304 YDs.  In this game, Cleveland possessed the second to last passing offense, the Lions the worst passing defense.  Something had to give.  Should we expect the same production against the Bengals?  Maybe.  The Bengals are 19th defending the pass but 2nd against the run.  If the Bengals can contain the scurrying of Jamal Lewis, Quinn's old ways should prevail.  I like the Bengals big.  

Seattle at St. Louis (+3)

Just as the Rams were making progress, Marc Bulger suffers a fractured leg and will miss 3-6 weeks.  Considering the Rams already ranked twenty-second throwing the ball, don't expect much more with Kyle Boller at the helm.  A heavy dose of Stephen Jackson is in the forecast for the Seahawks defense, which sits in the middle of the pack against the run (15th).  To counter, the Hawks, as a team, have accumulated 844 YDs on the ground.  There are currently seven individuals that have rushed for more yards than the Seahawks. (Needless to say they rank last.) Since a 41-0 shackling of Jacksonville in week 5, whereby Matt Hasselbeck threw for 4 TDs, Seattle has gone 1-4 in their last five, seeing Hasselbeck equal that 4 TD output over this span.  Give me Stephen Jackson plus the 3.

Carolina at NYJ (-3)

Carolina is a mysterious team.  Their last six games were as follows: W,L,W,L,W,L.  According to this pattern, a W is in the cards for a Panthers team that, if they continue their success, will be the number one running team by years' end.  They once again pounded the ball for 182 YDs in a loss to the Dolphins and, barring an early insurmountable deficit, will likely do the same to the Jets.  As Mark Sanchez continues to struggle, the Jets' offense seems to slip further down the line, landing them twentieth overall.  Sanchez's 4 INTs against the Patriots left the Jets' defense on the field for almost 40:00 minutes.  A tired defense equals plenty of gaps to run through.  I like the Panthers to run wild.  

Washington at Philadelphia (-9)

Despite Washington's 3-7 record, their overall defense ranks fourth, trailing only the Giants and Packers in the NFC.  Why the losing record?  The Skins sit twenty-fifth in offense, averaging 14.6 points a game.  Their top two weapons, Clinton Portis and Santana Moss have three touchdowns between them and on the road, Washington has an 0-5 record as well as 0-3 in the division.  For the Eagles, Westbrook, who has missed four games already, is expected to be a no-go for this game as well.  Ironically, though, the Eagles are 3-1 without him and in his place, LeSean McCoy has averaged almost 80 YDS/G with 3 TDs.  The Eagles won their first meeting in Washington in week 7 27-17.  I like the Redskins to seek redemption.  Give me the 9.

Indianapolis at Houston (+3)

If this game comes down to a game-tying field goal, expect Houston kicker Kris Brown to hook it left.  In two straight games, with the tying field goal at hand, as time was essentially expiring, Kris Brown hooked both attempts left, personally dropping the Texans to 5-5.  The first attempt came against Indianapolis in Indianapolis, where the Texans are now 0-8.  Indianapolis is hanging onto perfection by the skin of their teeth, and if not for a Joe Flacco interception, we may be talking about the 9-1 Colts.  Peyton Manning failed to throw for 300 YDs against the Ravens, only the second time this year he's being unable to(St. Louis).  Houston gives up just under 204 YDS/G at home through the air, but on the ground, they've allowed slightly over 141 YDS/G.  Considering the Colts run the ball so poorly (31st in the league), I like the Texans to pull off the upset. 

Kansas City at San Diego (-13.5)

The Chargers on well on their way to winning the AFC West.  They're in the midst of a five game winning streak, which began with a 37-7 win at Kansas City in week 7.  In this time, Philip Rivers has a 109 QB rating with 10 TDs and only 3 INTs.  Kansas City has the twenty-eight ranked passing defense, giving up almost 8 YDS/A and only sacking the QB 15 times.  Their shocking win over Pittsburgh gives them a two game winning streak entering this game, which leads many to think 13.5 is plenty for them to cover.  I believe otherwise.  I'll give the 13.5.

Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3)

Since starting 3-1, the 49ers have dropped five of six; their lone win coming via 5 Jake Cutler INTs.  The one note they can hang their hat on, San Francisco ranks sixth in rushing defense; something they'll need against a Jaguars team that runs the ball at 4.8 YDS a clip, or just over 136 YDS/G.  Jacksonville finds themselves tied for the final playoff spot at 6-4 with the fading Broncos and the ailing Steelers. With the Colts and Patriots still on the schedule, a win here is vital to their post-season dreams.  I like the Jags on the road.

Chicago at Minnesota (-10.5)

Minnesota is quietly sneaking up on the league.  Their overall offense ranks eight, however their 30.6 PTS/G is second only to the Saints (36.9).  As both the Colts and Saints continue to remain perfect, the Vikings stand at 9-1 and are in position to solidify a first round bye for the post season.  The Bears, on the other hand, continue to lose.  Falling 24-20 to the Eagles at home was their fifth in six games and for the season, they stand at 1-4 on the road.  For the season, Cutler's only gone two games without throwing an interception.  Minnesota is third in takeaways/giveaways (6), picking off their opponents 7 times.  A tough divisional game for the Vikings, though.  Give me the Bears and 10.5.

Arizona at Tennessee (-1)

Good game.  Both teams remain hot.  Although Kurt Warner suffered a head injury in last week's win, he's expected to go here.  Which is good.  In Arizona's last seven games, whereby they've won six, Warner's thrown for 14 TDs with only 2 INTs.  In their loss, he threw 5 INTs.  So as he goes, so go the Cardinals.  The fact that Tennessee has won four straight is obvious.  Vince Young's impact is even more significant, though, when you analyze third down.  With Kerry Collins running the ship, the Titans converted their 3rd downs 36% of the time.  With Vince Young - 51%.  I don't like the Titans here.  I love them. 

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-3.5)

The Steelers missed a golden opportunity to pick up a game on the division leading Bengals with an OT loss to the 3-7 Chiefs.  In their four losses, the Steelers have lost by a combined 15 points.  The Steelers still possess the number one defense overall and sit in a dog fight for the 5th and 6th playoff position with the Jaguars and Broncos.  Resting only a game behind, the Baltimore Ravens.  They looked impressive in a 17-15 loss to the Colts, causing three turnovers, including two Manning interceptions.  Pittsburgh enters on a two game slide, and if the defending Super Bowl Champs want to repeat, the run to the playoffs begins here.  Ravens by only a field goal. 

New England at New Orleans (-3)

It simply does not get any better than this.  We know what the Patriots have established over the last decade.  But for 2009, Brady has thrown 20 TDs with 6 INTs.  Moss and Welker have caught 142 catches with 12 TDs.  Their defense ranks sixth overall, but they've only given up 16.4 points a game.  They'll need to lean on this stat because the Saints enter week 12 having amassed 4205 yards and have cleared 30 points in seven of their 10 games.  Fifteen different individuals have reached the end zone.  If anyone can solve this offense for one game, it's Bill Belichick.  But I still like the Saints to move to 11-0.

A QUICK RECAP

Packers -10
Cowboys -13.5
Giants -6.5
Falcons -12
Bills +3
Bengals -14
Rams +3
Panthers +3
Redskins +9
Texans +3
Chargers -13.5
Jaguars +3
Bears +10.5
Titans -1
Steelers +3.5
Saints -3