sportsfanIQ

NYJ at Buffalo (+3)

At 5-7, somehow, someway, the Jets sit only two games back of the not-so-immortal New England Patriots.  Since both the Bills and Jets lack significant presence at the QB position, let's focus on the running attacks.  After the loss of Leon Washington in week 6 to these same Bills, the Jets proceeded to run for 316 yards the following week against the Raiders behind Thomas Jones and Washington's replacement, Shonn Greene.  Since, however, the Jets have accumulated 480 yards in four games.  They rank 2nd overall, but are evidently fading fast.  The Bills haven't been able to get anything going on the ground since, ironically, the return of Marshall Lynch from suspension. They rank 19th running the rock, although interim coach Perry Fewell has decided to give the starting role back to Fred Jackson, which should pay dividends.  I like the Bills in Canada.  

Philadelphia at Atlanta (+4.5) 

The Falcons divisional hopes were quickly erased with the presence of the highflying Saints.  Their wild cards hopes, however, rest heavily on this game.  One game separates them and three other teams - the Eagles being one of them.  Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 at home but QB Matt Ryan is out for this showdown.  Off the bench, backup Chris Redman showed poise throwing for 243 yards and 2 TDs in a much needed win against the Bucs.  The Eagles, though, offer a different look defensively.  They've sacked opposing QBs 31 times, intercepting them 18.  There are a lot of missing variables to this matchup.  In addition to Ryan, the Falcons may be without Michael Turner.  The Eagles are without Brian Westbrook for another week.  Can the Falcons save their season?  I believe they keep it close.  Falcons plus 4.5.  

St. Louis at Chicago (-9)

Just how bad are the Rams?  Bad enough to be getting 9 points against a Bears team that's lost six of seven games.  Cutler threw two more interceptions and the Bears managed just 169 yards on offense against the Vikings.  But because it was the Vikings, we'll offer the Bears a reprieve.  The Rams are abominable at home.  They stand at 0-6, giving up 192 points in their own backyard.  Fortunately for them this game is on the road.  Both the Bears and Rams couldn't stop the run if they lined up 11 in the box, and knew the play; they rank 24th and 28th, respectively.  Rams or Bears?  Deep sigh here ... reluctantly, I'll take the Rams.   

Detroit at Cincinnati (-13)

Once again, after showing promise offensively against the Browns, the Lions managed to disappointment their fans on Thanksgiving Day.  They remain one of ten teams yet to crack 200 points for the season, averaging 17.5 points a game.  The Bengals have been heavy favorites the last two weeks (14, 9.5) but have not shown much muscle in either, losing to Oakland on the road, then scraping out a win against lowly Cleveland at home.  Cincinnati hardly blows anyone out.  Aside from a 45-10 stomping of the Bears, the Bengals have managed a 41 point differential in their 7 other wins.  Or 5.86/game.  I've gone with the Bengals the last two weeks with large numbers to overcome and have lost.  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.  I won't be fooled here.  Lions plus the 13.  

Oakland at Pittsburgh (-13.5)

Big Ben is a go for this week, which shouldn't be of much significance to Oakland, considering they struggle more defending the run than they do the pass.  Oakland gives up 4.6 yards a clip, including a league-worst 17 touchdowns via the ground.  In the Raiders' favor, the Steelers prefer to throw the ball, attempting 373 throws versus 301 runs.  For the record, Pittsburgh is 5th in passing yards per attempt (8.1) but 17th in running yards per carry (4.1). (Granted these averages are bunched tightly when we're talking percentage points.)  The Steelers have lost three straight, with the last two coming in OT.  But their next two are home against the Raiders and on the road versus the Browns.  It's do or die time for the Black and Gold.  I'm still a Steelers believer.  I'll give the 13.5.

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-7)

The Vince Young trains continues to chug along.  The Titans have moved to 5-6, incredibly, only one game behind the last playoff spot.  As expected, seeing what Chris Johnson has been doing to defenses, they rank number one on the ground, averaging 167.9 YDS/G, almost seven whole yards ahead of the number two team (Jets).  Getting to .500, though, will prove a tougher task.  The Colts come stampeding in, winning in every way fashionable.  They blow out teams; they win on last second missed field goals; and as of last week, come from 17 points down.  In their week 5 31-9 defeat of the Titans, the Colts held Chris Johnson to 34 yards on 9 carries.  Should we expect the same?  I don't believe so, although I can easily see the Colts running away with this game.  But for momentum sake, I'm going with the soon-to-be 6-6 Titans plus the 7. 

Denver at Kansas City (+4.5)

Man do I love the NFL.  Just when we're counting the Broncos out, they manhandle the Giants, holding them to 57 rushing yards and forcing 3 turnovers. (BTW, I'm done believing the Giants should and could run the ball.)  Whether this game was a testament to the Broncos' success or the Giants' failure, we'll find out this week.  After starting the season 0-5, the Chiefs come in playing .500 ball since (3-3).  They've always played the Broncos well at home, going 5-2 since 2002, but something tells me this game is a lot more separated than 4.5.  I'll take the Broncos.

New England at Miami (+6)

The Dolphins ran 60 plays from scrimmage for 326 yards in a win against the Panthers, had 9 nine days off in between, then proceeded to run 70 plays, totaling 325 yards in a loss to the Bills.  The difference?  The Fins allowed 24 4th quarter points to a Bills team that managed just 40 the entire season.  They coughed the ball up four times through the air, including one by Ricky Williams through the Wildcat formation.  Which, by the way, ran 6 plays for 19 yards and a touchdown.  The Patriots limp in humbled.  Their 7-4 record is mediocre at best and it's evident they're being out-coached.  When Devery Henderson goes 75 yards for a touchdown, untouched, and Tom Brady throws 2 seemingly bad interceptions, it's official - the Patriots mystic is over.  I'll take the Fish.    

New Orleans at Washington (+9)

So the feeling is, between the Colts and the Saints, NFL's two remaining undefeated, the Saints hold the greater chance of going 16-0.  If that's the case, this game presents itself as their biggest hurdle.  The Skins possess the number one passing defense, only giving up 170 YDS/G.  They've sacked the QB 27 times and have held them to a 81.6 QB rating.  Coincidentally, though, the Saints lead this category, holding their opposing QBs to a 57.6 rating.  As for their offense, by now, I think you have an understanding of what they're capable of.  If not, chew on this: the 2007 New England Patriots - which went undefeated for the regular season - scored 589 points in 16 games.  Right now, the Saints are on pace to better that mark by 3 points.  That Patriots offense was awesome; this Saints squad is better.  The Pats struggled down the stretch.  So will the Saints.  Give me the 9. 

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-6.5)

The Panthers managed 75 yards on the ground on 25 attempts against the Jets.  But that wasn't the surprising part.  What was shocking was the fact that they allowed Jake Delhomme - who'd only thrown 1 interception in his last 4 games - to drop back 34 times en route to 4 interceptions.  Why is this surprising?  In the Panthers' 4 wins, Delhomme has attempted 81 passes and they've run the ball 158 times.  In their seven losses, Delhomme's attempted 258 passes and they've run the ball 187 times.  Only once in 7 losses have the Panthers run more running plays than passing.  Tampa ranks 30th against the run giving up 160.4 YDS/G.  My free advice to Carolina's John Fox - RUN THE BALL MORE TIMES THAN YOU PASS and you'll win the game.  Now that I'm an unpaid consultant to the Panthers, I'll take them minus the 6.5.  

Houston at Jacksonville (PK)

After losing heartbreaking losses to the Colts and Titans in weeks 10 & 11, then jumping out to 17-0 lead to the Colts in week 12 only to see it evaporate, the Texans may be left with another disappointing season.  Matt Schaub's had a decent year thus far, throwing for 21 TDs and 11 INTs.  But it's their rushing attack that is suffering.  Ranked twenty-ninth in the league, they've yet to surpass 1,000 yards, and per attempt, they rush for a league worst 3.4 yards.  The Jaguars, on the other hand, average 132.6 yards on the ground and have visited the endzone 16 times.  They got thumped on the road in San Francisco, where their usually efficient 3rd down conversion rate (44.7) failed them, going 3-12.  These teams appear average at best, separated by only a game.  It's a pickem for a reason.  I'll pick the Jags.   

San Diego at Cleveland (+12.5)

Let's face it, besides the Colts - and I can make an argument including them -  is anyone playing better than the Chargers in the AFC?  They seem to be playing with a purpose, and rightfully so.  At 8-3, beyond the Browns, San Diego has a showdown in Dallas next week, then a huge home matchup with the Bengals, whom the Chargers are currently tied with for the number two seed in the conference.  But looking toward the horizon is taking Cleveland lightly.  The Browns are last in total offense; second to last in total defense and 0-4 at home.  OK, I'm convinced.  Let's not waste more time here.  Bring on the Boys.  Chargers by at least two touchdowns. 

Dallas at NYG (+1.5)

Speaking of the Boys, when Dallas lost to the Giants in week 2, thus spoiling the unveiling of their new stadium, few speculated we'd find these two at the crossroads they're out.  Since that point, Dallas has won seven out of nine, losing two road games to the Broncos and Packers.  The Giants have gone 4-5, with wins against an underachieving Falcons team, and three league-doormats with a combined record of 7-26: Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Oakland.  This game marks the first of three straight NFC East matchups for the Giants, before finishing home against Carolina then at Minnesota.  The Cowboys' schedule isn't any easier: Chargers at home, Saints on the road, at Washington then home to the Eagles.  The NFC East race heats up this week.  Give me the home underdog in this rivalry. 

San Francisco at Seattle (PK)

Both of these teams looked good last week.  The Seahawks' Justin Forsett filled in nicely for a dinged up Julius Jones, running for 130 yards on 22 carries and 2 TDs in a road win over the Rams.  More impressively, the 49ers contained Maurice Jones-Drew to 75 yards, not allowing a run over 12.  The Jaguars totaled 357 yards overall, but in four trips to the redzone, the 49ers held the Jags to one measly field goal.  In their first meeting in week 2, Frank Gore tore up the Hawks' defense with 207 yards on the ground.  Since that point, Seattle's defense has given up an average of 98.3 yards rushing.  Not really an impressive number, but an improvement from 207.  I'll lean toward the home team.  Seattle by a field goal.  

Minnesota at Arizona (+4)

Arizona plays in a weak division.  It's argued that their 7-4 record is therefore inflated.  Perhaps.  But in contrast to last season - when they finished 6-2 at home and 3-5 on the road - Arizona is struggling at home and better on the road.  They stand at 2-3 playing under the desert sun and the tale of this story has been their inability to hold on to the ball.  In their 3 losses, the Cardinals have turned the rock over 11 times.  In their 2 wins, once.  The Vikings are 4-1 on the road and Brett Favre is playing lights out.  His 24 TDs are second only to Drew Brees; his 3 INTs leads all regular starters; and his completion percentage is second only to Peyton Manning.  You would think at age 40 Favre would simply hand off to Adrian Peterson, but not so. Favre's counter in this game, Kurt Warner, is listed as questionable.  If he can't go, I can't go with the Cards.  

Baltimore at Green Bay (-3)

Although Green Bay's division winning hopes are all but dashed, their playoff aspirations have not wavered one bit.  Since blowing a 28-17 lead to the Buccaneers, the Pack have won 3 straight behind the arm of Aaron Rodgers, who's averaged 294 yards through the air with 6 TDs and 0 INTs.  With a chance to display their capabilities on national television for a second consecutive week, Green Bay welcomes a Ravens team that's coming off a huge divisional OT win against the Steelers.  Baltimore's been inconsistent at best: alternating wins and losses for the last six games.  Uncharacteristically, their defense sits tenth in the league, having only sacked the QB 21 times.  For a team that prides themselves on disrupting offensive rhythm, that production may not get them into January.  I like the Packers minus the points.  

A QUICK RECAP

Bills +3
Falcons +4.5
Rams +9
Lions +13
Steelers -13.5
Titans +7
Broncos -4.5
Dolphins +6
Redskins +9
Panthers -6.5
Jaguars PK
Chargers -12.5
Giants +1.5
Seahawks PK
Vikings -4
Packers -3