sportsfanIQ

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+10)

The Steelers may have officially sealed their post-season fate with their 4th consecutive loss.  Over this time, they've lost by a combined 15 points, having given up 92.  In their week 13 loss, at home, to the Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh allowed three touchdown drives on Oakland's final three possessions.  On 24 plays, the Raiders bullied the Steelers for 229 yards in ten minutes and six seconds worth of play clock.  The Browns, to their credit, protected their home turf well last week, losing by only seven to a better Chargers team.  I've stuck up for the Steelers the last four weeks; that stops here.  Browns plus the 10. 

Denver at Indianapolis (-7)

With two upcoming winnable games against Kansas City and Oakland, the Broncos are positioned well for the 5 spot.  Thanks to a Brandon Stokley miracle play in week 1, they hold the edge on the 9-3 Bengals, whom they trail by one game in the standings.  If Denver can somehow manage to catch the 9-3 Chargers, the 5 spot can quickly transform into a first-round-bye 2 spot.  That's thinking ahead, though.  The Colts enter week 14 on cruise control. They've wrapped up their division and can clinch the 1 seed with a win.  Although they rank, incredibly, dead last in rushing YDS/G (87.8), their attack through the air is first (302.8).  Unfortunately for Manning and the Colts, Denver sits 2nd in the league in passing YDS/G allowed (180.3).  Colts sneak through to 13-0, but it won't be easy.  I'll take the Broncos and the 7.      

Cincinnati at Minnesota (-7)

Brett Favre threw as many interceptions against the Cardinals as he had in the Vikings last seven games (2).  Adrian Peterson rushed for a mere 19 yards on thirteen carries.  Should Minnesota be worried?  Probably not.  With a two game cushion for the 2 spot, and a three game lead over the Packers for the division (they defeated the Packers both times they played), it's hard to believe they won't get a first round bye.  But a loss here would enter teams like Arizona, Dallas, Philadelphia and even the Packers back into the discussion.  Cincinnati is number two in stopping the run (81.8) and number one in points allowed (15.6).  They've managed to pick off opposing QBs 14 times, sacking them 29 and holding them to a 73.7 QB rating.  Playing in the Metrodome is another beast, though.  I like the Vikings minus the 7.

NYJ at Tampa Bay (+3.5)

Alright so last week, just when we suggested the Jets' running attack was fading away, they rip the worst rushing defense of the Buffalo Bills for 249 yards.  Well guess what?  The Bucs happen to be the 2nd to last stopping the run, giving up 172.1 YDS/G.  With the Jets only 1 game behind the division-leading Patriots, and undefeated Indianapolis and 9-3 Cincinnati still left on the schedule, this game is mandatory to New York's playoff hopes.  At 1-11, what is there left to say about Tampa Bay?  Last week, against a Carolina team that averages 325.8 yards a game against them, the Buccaneers threw up 469 yards in a 16-6 loss.  How is possible?  5 turnovers.  The Jets in a runaway.  

Buffalo at Kansas City (PK)

The battle for irrelevancy.  Between the two, last week, the Bills and Chiefs combined for 199 yards of passing, averaging 3.05 yards an attempt.  Ugh!  The Bills' offense is 29th in the league, one spot ahead of the Chiefs. The Chiefs' leading receiver is Dwayne Bowe, with a high-school high of 33 receptions.  For December, since 2005 and including this year, the Chiefs are 4-15.  The Bills aren't much better at 6-13.  (So much for knowing how to play in the cold.)  Since the Bills rush the ball better, at a tune of 8 yards more a game, I'll highlight that stat as the difference here.  Don't expect many points, though.  Bills by five.  

Green Bay at Chicago (+3)

Five weeks ago, the Packers lost back-to-back games and were deemed underachievers.  Since, they've rattled off four-in-a-row and are now sitting tied for the fifth slot, one game ahead of the outside-looking-in Giants. The difference has been their ability to suddenly protect Rodgers.  Of their league worst 45 sacks given up, only 8 have come in the last four games.  They finish the season with three out of four on the road, of which two are against the Cardinals and Steelers.  As for the Bears, who game plan around an efficient running scheme and a smash-mouth defense, rank 31st and 15th, respectively.  Enough said.  Give me the hard-charging Packers.  

New Orleans at Atlanta (+9.5)

With the loss of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, the Falcons looked feeble against former Falcons QB, Michael Vick and the Eagles.  They managed just 61 yards on the ground and if not for a 99-yard touchdown drive in garbage time, the Falcons would have been shut out at home with 196 total yards from scrimmage.  A few weeks ago this line would have been much smaller.  But losing five out of seven, plus your QB and RB creates somewhat of a mismatch.  The Saints, after escaping Washington unscathed, are beginning to smell perfection. They aim to pick apart a Falcons defense that surrenders 255 YDS/G through the air.  I'd like to think Atlanta can keep this one close, but without Matt Ryan, and possibly Turner, it appears as though the Saints march on. 

Detroit at Baltimore (-13.5) 

Despite losing six of their last nine, the Ravens are just one game behind the final playoff spot, and have a remaining oppositional record of 17-31.  Joe Flacco has struggled of late.  Over the Ravens' last six games, Flacco has thrown twice as many INTs (6) as TDs (3).  In fact, his counterpart, Matthew Stafford, has thrown 11 TDs in this same time, including 5 in week 11.  The Ravens seem to lack an identity or balanced offensive attack.  In their first 3 wins to start the season, Baltimore threw the ball 107 times and ran it 101 times.  Over their last nine, they've passed 303 times and have run 223, including two instances where they threw over 30 times more than they ran (both losses).  The Lions rank 30th in overall defense, which includes last against the pass and 19th stopping the run.  It would seem the Ravens should give the aerial attack one more shot.  I still like the Lions plus 13.5.  

Miami at Jacksonville (-3)

Only a game separates the two, and a win by Miami would bunch things up even further in the overall AFC playoff scenario.  Although Miami's ground game was slacking, Chad Henne looked like a veteran in a must win, standing up to the Patriots going 29-52 with 335 yards and 2 TDs in a 22-21 upset.  As for Jacksonville, a 5-1 home record gives them the slight edge here.  They've had their difficulties, somewhat, on the ground as well.  Since ripping off 530 yards in four games with 7 TDs, Maurice Jones-Drew has just 217 and 1 TD over the Jags last three.  As a team, Jacksonville's only managed 305 yards pounding the ball.  With Indy and New England to follow, this one's a must-win for the Jags.  I like them minus the 3. 

Carolina at New England (-13.5)

Last week's loss marked the first time New England lost back-to-back games since 2006, and they've now dropped three out of four starting with Bill's "4th and 2," although all three were on the road.  It's clear New England's defense is not what it used to be.  They allowed Miami to march 10 plays covering 51 yards, including a crucial 4th and 6 for the game-winning field goal.  Their four remaining opponents have a combined record of 21-27, giving them hope for optimism.  Last week we suggested Carolina should run more times than they pass.  By default, with Delhomme inactive, they did just that (33 versus 20) and won.  New England's running D ranks 15th, giving up a somewhat respectable 107.9 YDS/G.  I'm torn on this one.  I expect Brady and the Pats to come out firing.  Although the Panthers only give up 192 YDs through the air.  I'll still give the 13.5.    

Seattle at Houston (-6)

The Texans are reeling.  They've lost four in a row, rank 29th in the league in rushing with 88.7 YDS/G and have now lost Steve Slaton for the season.  This leaves them depending more, now than ever, on their 4th ranked passing offense, which averages 279 YDS/G.  Houston's problem has been their lack of discipline.  They are the fourth most penalized team in the NFL, giving away 718 yards.  In their last four games, they've been hit with 36 penalties totaling 341 yards.  Looking over the Seahawks' last two games is perplexing.  They've totaled 557 yards versus their opponents' 720.  Seattle won them both.  It's hard to believe these teams have the same record, leading me to think this game's closer than 6.  I'll take Seattle.     

St. Louis at Tennessee (-13)

Ok, so it's time to forget the Titans.  But they did give the 12-0 Colts a game.  They held the advantage in time of possession and yards, holding the ball for 32:59 and compiling 17 more total yards.  Chris Johnson still managed to gain over 100 yards, extending his streak to 7 straight games, although his average per run was his second lowest of the season (4.2).  St. Louis gives up 4.6 yards a clip on the ground, and has allowed their opponents' running game to reach the endzone 17 times, tying them for 2nd worst in the league.  The Rams have the worst points differential in the league (-175), producing 139 thus far.  13 points is a lot to expect a 5-7 team to win by, but I can't see the Rams hanging close here.  Titans by 15.     

Washington at Oakland (+1)

The Redskins were a 23-yard field goal from knocking the Saints from the unbeaten rankings, but failed to do so and lost in OT.  They went toe-to-toe offensively, throwing up 455 total yards, including Jason Campbell going 30-42 for 367 yards and 3 TDs.  Any game with the Saints would affect your defensive standings.  Washington dropped to 9th overall, allowing 19.8 points a game, or 312 YDS/G.  Oakland, on the other hand, had the champs on the ropes and closed the deal.  Since Bruce Gradkowski has taken over full-time, the Raiders have won two of three, including a win over 9-3 Cincinnati.  In this time, Gradkowski has thrown 6 TDs and only 1 INTs.  In the nine games prior, JaMarcus Russell threw just 2 TDs and 9 INTs.  I like the Raiders to make it three out of four. 

San Diego at Dallas (-3)

Clearly the game of the week.  The Cowboys' December record over the last few years has been well documented.  This year doesn't shape up to be any easier.  Chargers this week, the Saints the following, then two divisional foes to end the year.  The Boys outplayed the Giants.  Romo was 41-55 for 379 yards and 3 TDs.  They held the ball for 38:50 of the game.  But in the end it was their special teams that let them down and it wasn't a surprise.  Their punt team ranks 30th, having given up 3,119 yards on 70 punts.  The Chargers are hot.  Philip Rivers has thrown a touchdown in every game but one this season and LT has scored in the Chargers' last four, totaling six in this time.  I believe Dallas makes a December statement, though.  Boys minus the 3. 

Philadelphia at NYG (-1)

Two plays summed up the Giants' win last week: a 74 yard reception to Brandon Jacobs, which was the longest play for the Giants all season, until Domenik Hixon returned a punt 79 yards for the deciding score.  The Giants allowed the Eagles to jump out to a 16-0 lead in week 8 and were unable to catch up.  If they want to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Eagles for the first time since 2004, the Giants will have to avoid a repeat start.  Standing in the way, Philadelphia has put up 85 points in their last three, including 383 yards on the ground on 81 attempts.  In fact, in their 8 wins, the Eagles average 26.5 rushing attempts; in their 4 losses, 18.25.  Andy Reid has historically liked to throw the ball, but these numbers may prove against his thinking.  The Giants' opposition averages 25.33 attempts per game on the ground.  I expect the Eagles to continue their running attack and win on the road, thus pushing the Giants to the brink of playoff elimination.  

Arizona at San Francisco (+3)

Arizona is 4-1 in their last 5, scoring 140 points on 12 Kurt Warner TDs.  Their one loss came in Warner's absence.  They managed 285 yards through the air, 113 on the ground and 30 points against a Vikings team that only yielded 226 yards and 9.66 points a game over their previous three.  San Francisco's gone 2-2 since losing four in a row, but Frank Gore's only run for 117 yards over his last three.  The 49ers seemed to finally have found a QB in a reborn Alex Smith.  Smith's thrown for 13 TDs in 7 games this season.  In his previous three seasons, in 32 games played, Alex has only connected for six points 19 times.  The Cardinals are sitting comfortably atop their division, but they're in a dogfight for the number three seed with the Cowboys and Eagles.  I like them to win by more than the 3 here.   

A QUICK RECAP

Browns +10
Broncos +7
Vikings -7
Jets -3.5
Bills PK
Packers -3
Saints -9.5
Lions +13.5
Jaguars -3
Patriots -13.5
Seahawks +6
Titans -13
Raiders +1
Cowboys -3
Eagles +1
Cardinals -3