sportsfanIQ

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+6.5)

If you're an NFL fan and your team of choice doesn't make it to the Super Bowl, aside from Dolphins fans, you are cheering for a Saints/Colts undefeated showdown.  Jim Caldwell has already confirmed that his "healthy" starters will play, at least for week 15.  The Colts' Reggie Wayne, after catching 10 balls for 2 TDs in week 10, has grabbed 18 catches with 1 TD since.  Jacksonville has split with the Colts four out of the last seven years, and seeing that the law of averages is weighing on the Colts - they've won their last seven by an average margin of 5.14 - it's tough to think the Jags are rolling over at home for this divisional showdown.  Plus, they're in the heat of a four-way tie for the final AFC playoff spot.  Colts win - barely.   

Dallas at New Orleans (-7)

Wade Philips would like to concentrate on 2009.  Fine.  The Cowboys are 0-2 in December and now have to travel to New Orleans, where the Saints are 6-0 and average 15.33 point victories.  Actually, though, the Cowboys aren't playing that poorly.  They've accumulated 771 yards the last two games with only one turnover.  If you analyze the numbers for December, it's hard to explain why the Cowboys are 0-2.  Except, judging from their previous December troubles, perhaps they lack the "it" of winning.  Drew Brees and the Saints have made no secret about it: they're gunning for 16-0.  They escaped defeat by a field goal for the second consecutive week, despite having a 23-9 advantage over the Falcons in the second quarter.  Such a small number tells me this game's going be closer than anticipated, but it's hard to go against the Saints at home.  I'll give the 7.  

Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-1)

Two teams heading in the opposite direction, one losing five-in-a-row, the other winning five-in-a-row.  And the Steelers are favored?  In a 13-6 loss to the then 1-11 Browns, Pittsburgh allowed Cleveland to rack up eight sacks, which now accounts for twenty-five percent of the Browns' season total.  In a five week stretch, the Steelers managed to lose to a 2-win team, a 3-win team, and a 4-win team.  And now, a third of these nine wins are at the hands of Pittsburgh.  Amazing.  As for Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers has been steady over his last five.  He's thrown at a 68.8 completion percentage, with 9 TDs and 2 INTs.  The Steelers are all but mathematically eliminated from the post-season, however, their pride is at stake.  I'm trying to convince myself that the Steelers have one more in them, but I just can't.  Packers plus the 1.   

Miami at Tennessee (-3)

Miami is the third ranked rushing team in the league (150.1 YDS/G); Tennessee's second (165.3).  Even without Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins have averaged 136.3 YDS/G on the ground, winning three of four.  They walked into Jacksonville needing a win and got it, thus propelling them to the front of the 7-6 final-playoff-spot race.  Chris Johnson's torrid pace continues.  He's now surpassed 100 YDS on the ground in eight straight and runs the ball at an even 6.0 yards an attempt, 0.6 better than the next (Ray Rice).  Vince Young left last week's win early, but veteran Kerry Collins came off the bench going 11-19 with 154 YDS and a touchdown.  Miami once again needs a win, but Tennessee has won four-in-a-row at home.  Give me the Titans minus the 3. 

New England at Buffalo (+7)

For New England, most of this week's talk has been about Randy Moss possibly packing it in against the Panthers.  But has anyone seen what Wes Welker's been going?  He's caught more than 10 balls six times this season, for a total of 105 receptions in only 11 games.  Over his last four, Wes has 41 grabs for 496 yards with, remarkably, zero touchdowns.  In fact, he hasn't reached the endzone since week 7.  Under interim coach Perry Fewell, Buffalo's 2-2 and doing it on the ground.  Behind the duo of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, the Bills have rushed for 452 yards in their last three, going 2-1.  The Pats held the dynamic combo of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams - whose team averages over 36 more yards a game on the ground than the Bills - to 111 yards in a 20-10 win over the Panthers.  I think the Bills will come to play, which makes me think I'll regret this: give me the Pats minus the 7. 

Arizona at Detroit (+11)

With a chance to wrap up the NFC West division, the Cardinals went out and turned the ball over seven times.  Kurt Warner's season average for passing yards was 273 YDS/G before this matchup.  He totaled 178 against a 49ers team that ranks twenty-seventh in the league, giving up 244 YDS/G.  Warner and the Cardinals get a chance at redemption against the Lions, who rank dead last, giving up 272 YDS/G through the air.  As a team, over their last four, the Lions have given up an average of 432.5 total YDS/G.  They've been outscored 142-66 in this time.  Because Kurt Warner built his reputation on turf, let's consider this: since joining the Cardinals in 2005, Warner's led Arizona to a 10-7 record versus dome teams, either on the road or under the desert sun.  Of the seven games he's been under center while playing indoors, Warner's posted a 4-3 record.  Whether this stat is impressive or not, it's gives me the confidence to select them here.  Arizona minus the 11 on turf.      

San Francisco at Philadelphia (-7.5)

The Eagles have won four straight and now find themselves one full game atop the NFC East.  Donovan McNabb hasn't been great in this time, throwing 6 TDs and 3 INTs for 1,017 yards.  But his ability to find DeSean Jackson 24 times, accounting for forty-one percent of his overall passing yardage, has been the key.  At 9-4, and without Brian Westbrook essentially since week 7, the Eagles find themselves 19th rushing the ball, behind teams like Atlanta, Buffalo, and even St. Louis.  San Francisco is fifth in stopping the run, giving up 95.0 YDS/G.  Their pass defense sits twenty-seventh in the league, allowing 7.0 yards a throw, but fifth in touchdowns surrendered (13).  If the 49ers can stop the pass, they'll have a chance.  But after losing to the Raiders in week 6, the Eagles are 6-2, averaging 29.5 points a game.  I like them minus the 7.5 at home.   

Atlanta at NYJ (-4.5)

The Jets are in a four-way tie for the final playoff spot, but lose the tie-breaker in all three instances.  They've won three straight, but have struggled at the QB position during this time.  Between Mark Sanchez and Kellen Clemens, in three games, the Jets' aerial attack has accumulated 361 yards through the air.  To put that in perspective: Drew Brees has thrown for over 361 yards three separate times this season.  The Jets ran for 424 yards the last two games against the worst and second to worst rushing defenses.  The Falcons rank twenty-third, giving up 117.8 YDS/G.  Atlanta's been decimated by injuries and hopes to get offensive weapons Matt Ryan and Michael Turner back this week.  Although it's too late for their season, it does propose a challenge to the top-ranked Jets defense.  I think the Jets win by at least three.  So I'll go the extra 1.5 and give the 4.5.      

Chicago at Baltimore (-10)

I see two stats summing up this ten-point line.  For one, the Ravens rank 6th in the league stopping the run, giving up 97.8 YDS/G.  The Bears are last running the ball, managing just 85.8 YDS/G.  Secondly, the Ravens are a +4 in takeaways/giveaways, intercepting their opposing QB 16 times.  The Bears are a -4, having thrown 22 INTs.  Both these stats illustrate the disappointment toward Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.  Forte's only broken 100 yards on the ground once this year, totaling just 685 yards, way off the pace from his 1,238 yard rookie season.  Of the four teams tied for the 6th spot in the AFC (Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars), the Ravens' remaining schedule is the most favoring (15-24).  As a side note, the Jets have the hardest (28-11).  Baltimore tore apart the Lions for 548 total yards.  I don't expect that much here, but I do like them minus the 10. 

Cleveland at Kansas City (-2.5)

The Browns shocked the defending Super Bowl Champions, thus basically eliminating them from playoff contention.  In Cleveland's two wins this year, ready for this, their quarterbacks are 8-36 for 113 yards.  Wow!  Coincidentally, the Browns rushed for 171 yards in both wins.  If this isn't an indication for Kansas City to prepare to stop the run, I'm not sure what is.  Unfortunately, the Chiefs rank 29th in doing so, giving up 148.1 yards on the ground.  Who are they tied with?  The Browns.  Jamaal Charles ran for 143 yards on 20 attempts in a 16-10 loss to the Bills (last against the run).  Josh Cribbs, a receiver, rushed for 87 yards on eight attempts against the Steelers (first against the run).  One of these 29th ranked rushing defenses has to show up.  I think I'm leaning toward Cleveland.   I'll take them plus the 2.5.      

Houston at St. Louis (+11)

Houston is 1-4 over their last five.  In this time, Matt Schaub's been average.  He's thrown for 1,472 yards with 8 TDs but has coughed it up 6 times.  Their passing offense, which ranks fourth, makes up seventy-six percent of the Texans' overall attack.  The Rams, though, have been putrid.  In their 47-7 loss to the Titans, the Rams' offensive leaders were Keith Null (27-43 157 yards; 1st career start), Kenneth Darby (51 yards on 1 attempt), and Brandon Gibson (6 catches for 43 yards).  These three are a far cry from the days of Warner, Faulk and Holt.  I'm almost tempted to take the Rams here.  In their last three home games, St. Louis has lost by a combined total of 23 points, which included a 28-23 loss to the Saints.  The one-game-under-his-belt Keith Null didn't play in any of these games, though.  I'll take the Texans.    

Cincinnati at San Diego (-6.5)

By virtue of a better divisional record, the Bengals could leap the Chargers for the coveted number two seed with a win here.  Cincinnati struggled against the Vikings, having Carson Palmer throw for only 91 total yards on 28 pass attempts.  They'll finish home versus Kansas City, then at the New York Jets.  The Chargers have won eight straight, despite possessing the second to last rushing offense (87.5 YDS/G), which includes last in rushing per attempt (3.2 yards).  If you look closely at Cincinnati's offense, it's clear they're winning with their defense.  They are third in rushing yards allowed (1,123) and second in points given up (16.7).  Their offense, on the other hand, ranks 20th in overall yardage (322.5) and 19th in points scored (20.3).  This is a good matchup that can easily be decided by a touchdown.  But because of the magnitude, I'll take the Bengals plus the 6.5.

Oakland at Denver (-11.5)

The last time these two played, Denver controlled the clock (36:15), held the Raiders to nine first downs, and surrendered only 137 total yards, including just 42 through the air.  Currently, Denver is second against the pass, giving up 183 YDS/G.  Oakland is second to last throwing it, averaging 145 YDS/G.  Granted the Raiders are a different team with Bruce Gradkowski running the show, but after suffering sprained ligaments in both knees, Oakland's left to decide between JaMarcus Russell and Charlie Frye.  Where does all this leave the Raiders?  Perhaps where they were a few years ago: looking for a QB in the first round of the draft.  Give me the Broncos minus 11.5. 

Tampa Bay at Seattle (-7)

How bad are the Buccaneers?  In their 26-3 loss to the Jets, Tampa Bay managed six first downs; their first coming in the third quarter.  They were 0-14 on third down.  And they averaged 2.5 yards per pass attempt and 2.2 yards per rush.  As for Seattle, their 34-7 loss to the Texans wasn't much better.  They salvaged 13 first downs, went 1-14 on third down, and ran for 62 yards.  Both teams give up a lot of points.  The Seahawks allow 23.2 points per game, and the Bucs 27.4.  Both predominantly throw the ball, though Seattle does it better.  For the year, Seattle averages 224 YDS/G, Tampa Bay 180 YDS/G.  I can see a high scoring game here, whereby the underdog scores late to get under the 7.  Give me the Bucs plus 7.

Minnesota at Carolina (+7)

Of the top 10 overall offensive team leaders, the Minnesota Vikings seem to display a conscious effort towards balance, and are successful at it.  Their 449 passing attempts have awarded them 254 YDS/G.  Their 388 running attempts - 125 YDS/G.  This combination lands them sixth overall in yards (4,927) and second in points scored (29.9).  Their defense is no pushover either.  Again, they're sixth in overall yards allowed (3,947), which includes fourth in rushing yards (86.9).  This last stat may come in handy against a Panthers team that runs for 149.9 YDS/G (4th).  One aspect to keep an eye on: Carolina has put the ball on the ground six times this season, which is second worst.  The Vikings have picked it up 12 times, which is second best.  If the Panthers can hold on to the rock, I like them plus the seven at home.   

NYG at Washington (+3)

In last week's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Giants controlled the ball for 34:46, but lost 45-38.  In the game, they gave up a 72-yard punt return for a touchdown, a 1-play 60-yard pass play for a touchdown, and a 60-yard fumble return for a touchdown.  In addition, they surrendered touchdown drives of 67, 70 and 91 yards.  If this doesn't tell you all you need to know about the Giants, perhaps this will: their overall defense is ninth in yards allowed (3,993) but they're twenty-eight in points given up (25.4).  The Redskins, who are twelfth in points allowed (19.3), come in playing relatively well.  Washington is 2-3 over a five game stretch, sandwiching wins around a 1-point loss to the Cowboys, a 3-point loss to the Eagles, and a 3-point loss to the Saints.  Washington held late four quarter leads in all three of these losses.  Playing at home, against a Giants team that's still feeling the effects of beginning the season 5-0 only to go 2-6 over their next eight, makes me believe the Skins have the advantage here.  Give me Washington plus the 3.