sportsfanIQ

Indianapolis at Buffalo (-7)

Now that the '72' Dolphins have popped their 2009 champagne, this game is more meaningless than ever.  The Colts enter their final game ranked number one in passing yards a game (292), but last in rushing (84.6).  Expect Peyton Manning to start in order to keep his consecutive streak alive, but not to play much.  Buffalo looks to salvage something of their season.  At 5-10, the Bills have locked up their fifth straight losing season.  Surprisingly, though, they rank third in passing defense, but last in rushing.  Opponents evidently figure if they can't stop the run, why pass.  Buffalo by seven, though?  I like the Colts plus 7.   

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-2)

Break up the Browns.  Winners of three straight, Cleveland's finally found the cure: run, run and more run.  For their last three, the Browns have racked up 686 yards on the ground.  To put that in perspective: prior to this three game run (no pun intended), the Browns managed 656 yards over a seven-game losing stretch.  As for the Jags, who held their own destiny before losing three straight, they'll hope to finish the season at .500.  In fact, they've lost four out of five and have averaged just 107 yards on the ground, well below their 126.5 season average.  I like Cleveland to end on a four-game tear. 

Philadelphia at Dallas (-3)

In the game of the week, Philadelphia eyes up not only the NFC East, but the number two seed as well.  Riding a six-game winning streak, the Eagles are second to only the Packers in giveaways/takeaways with 18.  What's more, they're second in overall takeaways with 36, and second in interceptions with 23.  They score 28.6 points a game, which is third to only the Saints and Chargers.  Come playoff time, don't forget about the Eagles.  After starting December 0-2, the 'Boys' have put their demons behind them and have January in sight.  They held the number one offense of the Saints to 271 passing yards, well below their season average of 416.5.  In their 17-0 smothering of the Redskins, Dallas gave up 175 through the air; and a mere 43 on the ground.  This one's tough.  I actually envision a three-point Dallas win.  So I'll lean their way. 

Chicago at Detroit (+2)

Incredibly, although Detroit has the second worst points differential in the league (-218), it's the Bears who are eager to get this season over with.  Chicago knew they had a gunslinger in Cutler, but with one game to go, his 26 INTs surpass a personal worst by eight.  He's well off his 4,526 yards of last year, entering this game with 3,390.  To be fair, though, he did manage a 4 TD performance against the Vikings.  The Lions are 2-13, but for a team with zero wins a year ago, Matthew Stafford's rookie season must be considered a success.  He's thrown only 13 TDs and 20 INTs, but suffering just 24 sacks in ten games (2.4/game) is a positive for a team that allowed 52 last year, or 3.25/game.   Detroit's defense is awful, but Chicago's offense isn't much better.  I'll go with the Lions plus the 2. 

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+2.5)

Despite averaging a 49.2 QB rating, Matt Ryan has led the Falcons to two wins on 4 TDs and 0 INTs over his last two.  Without Michael Turner running the rock, however, Atlanta's slipped to the bottom half of the league in rushing (112.9 YDS/G), and sit twenty-third overall in yards allowed (247).  Tampa Bay has won two in a row behind 310 yards on the ground.  Atlanta and Tampa are twenty-third and twenty-sixth, respectively, in overall offense.  On the last week of the season, when most games are as irrelevant as this one, I'll flip a coin here.  Heads Atlanta, tails Tampa...it was tails.  Buccaneers plus the 2.5.

New Orleans at Carolina (-7)

OK, so I'm not sure if New Orleans has decided to take their foot off the proverbial pedal, but for a team that averages 33.3 points a game, the last two may be of some concern.  Not only have they scored just 17 in both, but Drew Brees' 556 yards and 2 TDs are both well off his norm.  In addition, giving up 439 total yards to the Cowboys is understandable.  But to the Bucs, a team that averages 293 yards and a dismal 15.6 points a game, is another story.  The Panthers are hot.  They held Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre to 35 and 224 yards, respectively.  Then follow that up by spoiling the Giants last home game in their stadium by stampeding for 247 yards.  Not sure the Saints want this one much, but they may need it.  Still, I like Carolina minus 7. 

San Francisco at St. Louis (+7)

The 49ers will be going for their most wins since a 10-6 2002 record.  Behind a rejuvenated Alex Smith, and an all-purpose Frank Gore, San Francisco's looks to win two-in-a-row for the first time since starting the year 2-0.  As long as they keep the ball in Gore's hands - he ran for 78 yards on 28 carries and also caught 4 balls for 81 yards and a TD in a 20-6 win over Detroit - they should even their 2009 record at 8-8.  As for the Rams, they're just lucky the Lions were on their schedule this year as well.  If not, they'd be staring 0-16 directly in the face.  Statistically, they're not too bad, but as for scoring and giving up points: they've scored the least (169) and have given up the most (408).  A recipe for failure.  Give me the 1849ers minus the 7. 

Pittsburgh at Miami (+3)

The NFL works in mysterious ways.  Faced with playoff elimination, the Steelers take one from the Packers then a crucial divisional win from the Ravens.  They need some help from the Bengals, but Pittsburgh's defending their crown with a fight.  If you review their 23-20 win over Baltimore, it's clear they were outplayed.  Their one saving grace, the Ravens were penalized 11 times for 113 yards.  As for the Fish, losing their last two will most likely have a lingering effect this off-season.  Missing Ronnie Brown finally caught up with them after managing just 60 yards on the ground in a 27-20 home loss to the Texans.  It does seem, though, they've found their future at QB.  Chad Henne's gone for over 300 yards three out of their last four.  I expect both to come to play here.  Pittsburgh the defending champs.  Give me them minus 3.

NYG at Minnesota (9.5)

The Vikings are spiraling out of Super Bowl contention.  Losers of three of four, they'll need some help from the Cowboys, and a win here, to secure the two seed.   AP's averaged 69 yards in his last six, including two fumbles, one coming in deciding fashion to the Bears.  The Giants will be left to think of what could have been.  After beginning the year 5-0, they're now 3-7 since and showed absolutely no heart in their stadium's farewell.  For a team that should have been pounding the ball all year, they were outrun 247 to 60 in an embarrassing 41-9 loss to Carolina.  This game is clearly more important to Minnesota, but that's usually when the G-Men like to show up.  I still like the Vikings minus the 9.5.  

Cincinnati at NYJ (-10)

I know what you're thinking: can this line be right?  It sure is what I'm thinking.  The J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets hold their own destiny, but have a dogfight in front of them first.  The Jets run the ball better than any other team, averaging 166.6 YDS/G; the Bengals are second only to the Packers in yards allowed on the ground, giving up only 87.7 YDS/G.  The Jets stop the pass better than anyone, allowing only 164 YDS/G; the Bengals are mediocre in the passing game, throwing for 193 YDS/G.  The obvious difference here: the Jets are thirtieth in the league, managing just 154 YDS/G through the air; the Bengals are fourteenth, giving up 212 YDS/G in passing.  This line does seem a bit too high.  I'll take the Bengals plus the 10.  But the Jets make the playoffs!

Green Bay at Arizona (-3)

The Packers were once 4-4 and searching for answers.  Since, they've won six of seven, which includes a time expiring loss to the Steelers, and are now positioned for a possible first round home game.  I know I've said this before, but Aaron Rodgers has been brilliant.  For the season, he's thrown 29 TDs with only 7 INTs, all while being sacked 50 times.  At 4,199, Rodgers is on pace for 4,479 yards for the season.  (Brett Favre's career high is 4,413 in 1995.)  I sure hope Green Bay is embracing this guy.  For the Cardinals, their repeat run to the Super Bowl began three weeks ago in a 31-24 win over the Lions.  Historically speaking, just making the playoffs is an accomplishment lately.  In seven out of the last eight, including the 2007 18-1 Patriots, the loser of the Super Bowl has failed to make the playoffs the year following.  Make that seven out of nine.  I like the Cardinals minus 3.

Washington at San Diego (-4)

Does it get any hotter than San Diego?  18 straight December victories and counting...  Philip Rivers was near perfect once again, going 21 for 27 with 264 yards and 2 TDs in a 42-17 shellacking of a good Titans team.  With the fifth best passing defense, the Redskins can certainly offer a warm-up of what's to come.  Of their potential second-round showdowns with either the Bengals or Patriots, Cincinnati holds the fourth overall defense, and New England the eight.  As for what matters - points - the second highest scoring offense in San Diego (28.7) will have a challenge facing the fourth best defense, New England (16.7), and fifth best, Cincinnati (16.9).  I like San Diego to stay classy minus 4. 

Tennessee at Seattle (+4.5)

The only thing worth watching here is Chris Johnson's pursuit of 2,000 rushing yards.  He needs 128 against a Seattle defense that surrenders 110.  Tennessee runs the ball, on average, 30 times a game.  Figure the Titans to make sure Johnson eclipses the mark.  After starting the 2009 campaign 0-6, the Titans have won seven of nine, and have great expectations for a full 2010 of Vince Young and Chris Johnson.  The Seahawks have been outscored 106 to 24 over their last three, and have seen Matt Hasselbeck throw 9 INTs in this time.  I expect a lot of running from Johnson and a large victory margin from the Titans.  Titans minus 4.5.

Baltimore at Oakland (+10.5)

Simply put: Baltimore wins and they're in.  Earlier this year, I noticed Baltimore's defense to be playing below their standards.  But with one week to go, here's where they stand defensively: they are third overall in yards allowed (4,483); second in points allowed (16.5); sixth in rushing yards allowed (96.1) as well as passing (202.8); and sixth in takeaways (30).  Considering their offense ranks fourteenth overall, it's a good thing the defense has found their old form.  Then there's Oakland.  If you can figure this out, let me know.  They've beaten the Bengals at home; Pittsburgh and Denver on the road; then they lose to the Browns.  Ok, ok, this last one was with Charlie Frye.  We'll grant Oakland a reprieve.  Baltimore gets in with a crushing road win.  Give me them minus 10.5.   

Kansas City at Denver (-13)

Another team that may have a lot to think about this off season, the Denver Broncos started 6-0, only to lose four-in-a-row, then most recently, three-in-a-row, and now find themselves at an average 8-7.  Over their last three, Denver's struggled to total just 245 yards on the ground, an area they're most known for.  Kyle Orton's had a successful year, considering he came in replacing Jay Cutler.  For the season, his 20 TDs and 9 INTs land him sixteenth and second in the league.  As for the Chiefs, there's little to say except: wait till next year.  Denver needs the win.  Give me the Broncos minus the 13.

New England at Houston (-8)

This line befuddles me the most.  New England is still jockeying for the number three seed and the Texans are favored by eight?  Since the talk of Randy Moss giving up against Carolina, the Patriots seemed to have made a statement, throwing him 9 balls for 115 yards and 4 TDs.   New England's defense is third in the league in points rendered (16.7) and seventh in passing yards allowed (204).  These two positions will come in to play provided the Texans are second in passing yards (290.6) and eleventh in points (23.6).  Andre Johnson's number for the season: 95 grabs (4th), 1,504 yards (1st) and 9 TDs (9th).  This line is fishy.  The Patriots need a win, sort of.  I cannot go against Bill Belichick and eight points.  Pats plus the 8.