Next Score Wins
Friday, September 11, 2009 at 2:36PMOne week into the NFL season and already there's thought for concern.
When the Tennessee Titans lost on the opening drive of overtime against the defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, once again, the overtime system came under fire.
When you actually review the numbers of it, though, the odds favor the system.
Since 2001, including the playoffs, there have been 136 overtime games. With the exception of two ties, thirty-eight percent of the time the team that won the toss, won the game on its ensuing drive.
This means that close to sixty-one percent of the time, what appeared to be an overwhelming advantage - that the team offered the ball first had a greater chance to win the game - proved otherwise.
But wins and losses shouldn't support the heads or tails argument.
The coin toss is an illogical and, according to the aforementioned numbers, deceiving option.
Sure, the opening moments of a game are decided on a 50/50 call, but that gets sliced into two halves. If one team receives the ball in the first quarter, the other gets it to start the third.
In no other sport (removing home field) does an overtime arrangement give one team an advantage over the other.
In baseball, each team gets a crack. In hockey and basketball, the puck and ball are dropped down or thrown up in a free-for-all. In golf or tennis, each player gets an equal chance to win, whether it be a set, a match or a hole.
But in football, sorry, call it in the air.
The rebutting argument is: it's the defense's job to stop the offense.
Perhaps.
But not even the most formidable defenses in NFL history would lead a coach to kickoff in overtime.
No. Any coach, with the game on the line, would want the ball first.
But this debate isn't new. It's been going on for quite a while and the NFL seems to stubbornly ignore it.
So should they be?
Ironically, this displeasure with the system usually resurfaces when a meaningful game concludes on an opening overtime drive, leaving a star QB helplessly on the sideline. (Think Peyton Manning vs. the Chargers in 2008.)
When viewed through the prism of playoff implications, it's fair to say the system needs revamping.
The NFL's claim has always been that in order to uphold the integrity of the sport, the overall format of overtime must remain in place.
And maybe so.
Although this does not suggest that from goal line to goal line needs changing, as was the case with the college format. It does imply, however, that the game's balance shouldn't hinge on the side of a coin.
Many alternatives are not better than the status quo, so until one is, we'll deal with what we have.
But let's end on one and see if it sticks:
The team without the ball at the end of regulation kicks off to start overtime. Both teams play a fifteen minute quarter and the team winning at the end of that time is the victor.
It's basically a continuation of regulation whereupon the incentive to win at the end of four quarters still exists.
There are some loop holes, of course. Teams will intentionally punt to get rid of the ball, or attempt a 65-yard field goal to get rid of their possession, but these wrinkles can be ironed out.
For instance, the regular strategy of football cannot be compromised. Meaning, a third down punt, or a 75-yard field goal attempt.
Maybe it's not perfect, but neither is a coin toss.
Any ideas, let us hear them...
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Reader Comments (2)
I like the idea. They could probably tweak it to get it to work as you said.
Another idea would be to keep the 4th quarter going until the tie is broken. No stoppage of the clock (just a reset to 15:00 at 0:00), kickoff etc. The team with possession at the end of regulation just continues the drive until they turnover or score etc...next team to score wins. OT could still be 15 mins and end in a the occasional tie as before.
The only drawback of this -- that I can think of -- would be not getting to see a QB like Tom Brady win the game with a 2 minute drill like he did Monday. There would still be the possibility of this scenario at the end of OT, but it would happen far less often. (only after 13 mins of scoreless OT)
Still, both of these scenarios remove the coin flip which I agree leaves too much up to chance after a week of practice and 60 minutes of brute effort.
I think you make an excellent argument. But I have no problem with the coin toss. The problem is with sudden death. Toss the coin, but then play a regular "5th quarter". Perhaps shorten it a bit, to 10 minutes, since players are very tired at that point. Maybe even 8 minutes. But make it like the end of any regular game. This is the least-gimmicky solution and ensures that overtime is the same game, by the same rules, as the previous 60 mins.