NFL - Wild Card
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 12:36PM NYJ at Cincinnati (-2.5)
So the Jets backed into the playoffs, eh? Get a load of this: the Jets led the league in yards against (4,037) by an uncompetitive 514 yards; points allowed (14.8) by almost a full point; and passing yards given up (2,459) by 489 yards. They may have benefited from two rollover games, but their defense should be a concern for any playoff foe. As for the Bengals, expect something entirely different than the scheme they displayed last week against New York. After giving up 257 yards on the ground and only 63 through the air, Cincinnati would be hard pressed not to force Sanchez to win this game, and thus crunching eight in the box. Of the three repeat match-ups from last week, this is the only one switching locations. This leads me to think the Bengals will give a much better performance. Let's be clear on this one: my official pick here is Cincinnati minus the 2.5. But since I reside roughly five miles from their home, I'll be rooting for the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets!
Philadelphia at Dallas (-4)
The Eagles gave away a golden opportunity when they relinquished control of the two seed. Now, after managing just 228 total yards against Dallas, the Eagles must revisit this unfavorable matchup. Some numbers from last week: first downs - Dallas 21 Philly 10; time of possession - Dallas 40:23 Philly 19:37. Not to mention 179 yards on the ground for the Boys versus 37 for the Birds. Dallas finished the year allowing just 772 total yards in three games to the, at the time, undefeated Saints, Redskins and Eagles, including back-to-back shutouts. Tony Romo finished the season with 26 TDs and 9 INTs. So how good was shutting down the Eagles? Philadelphia was cruising before Week 17. In six wins, they averaged 388 total yards with just over 31 points. Donovan McNabb had thrown for 10 TDs in this span. For a team that had a number two seed on the line, this performance illustrates more what Dallas is made of, than what Philadelphia isn't. Give me the Cowboys minus 4.
Baltimore at New England (-3.5)
New England lost 123 receptions when Wes Welker went down with a torn ACL and MCL, but claim Julian Edelman can do the job. Perhaps. But losing the chemistry Brady and Welker had established is another story altogether. This matchup pins the third best offense in New England against the third best defense in Baltimore. Where it'll be won? In the trenches. The Ravens ran the ball for an average of 137.5 YDS/G, landing them fifth in the league for the regular season. Their defense surrendered just 93.3 YDS/G, which was also fifth. As for the Pats, who were twelfth in rushing having gained 120.1 YDS/G, they did reach the endzone a total of 19 times on the ground and with Fred Taylor back, now have an arsenal of options in the backfield. New England hasn't lost a first round playoff game since a 25-10 Wild Card loss to the Jaguars in 1998 under Pete Carroll. Head-to-head, the Patriots are 5-0 against the Ravens. As much as I think Baltimore has a legitimate shot in this game, I think there's a better chance of a New England/San Diego second round showdown. Give me the Pats minus 3.5.
Green Bay at Arizona (-1)
Maybe Arizona had nothing to gain by showing their hand against the Packers last week. But then again, neither did the Packers. The Packers are HOT! Over their last eight, they've averaged 31 points going 7-1 and seeing Aaron Rodgers intercepted just twice. Their 30.8 points a game in the second half of the year landed them third overall in the league. (After the first eight games, Green Bay's 26.88 points a game earned them sixth best.) Obviously, the offense has always been there. But it's their D that's making the difference. For the first eight games, Green Bay gave up an average of 21.5 points a game which, at the time, ranked 17th. Their 15.63 points a game in their last eight moved them to seventh, up ten spots, to end the year. As for Arizona, right now, Anquan Boldin is listed as questionable with a high ankle sprain. If he can't go, a revisit back to the Super Bowl is in jeopardy. Regardless, I like Rodgers and the Packers plus 1.